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Quote:The inf is easy to verify. Compare the per-kill to what you get on live. At least early in testing, the amount that I got for a +1 Council minion or Lt. when I was +1/8 was exactly the same inf I got for a +1 Council minion solo on live.Based in the report of the inf differences I am thinking the that the "Virtual" teammates are getting a slice of the inf and drops.
If virtual teammates are getting a cut of recipes, it's not a proportional cut; the drop rates I saw (and continue to see reported) weren't 1/8 of expected recipes. It's also not applying to salvage at all, and selective re-proportioning seems odd. Add to that the fact that I got lousy drop rates at +1/1 and I think the difficulty slider is at best only part of the equation. -
Quote:Absolutely not. Synapse has straight-out said that there is no intentional decrease in recipe drop rates. That means that if we continue to see reports of drop rates well outside what should be expected, it's a bug.If there has been a decrease to drop rate, but it hasn't been in any patch notes or mentioned by any Devs, isn't it likely a mistake that will be corrected? Just curious if you guys are under the impression they are trying to sneek something in under the radar.
Nobody is accusing the devs of a stealth-nerf to drop rates. I've tossed out some wild ideas, but when Synapse says they haven't changed anything, I have no reason not to believe him, so any change must be an unanticipated consequence of some other code change.
Quote:Also, over the last three days I've played a Claws Brute from 1-25. I started out with missions spawned for 3 and worked my way up to 6 currently. I haven't done any tracking, but before I read this thread I thought drop rates had been increased. My recipes and salvage have been filling up so fast that I have to sell every 2-3 missions. -
Other things that might be worth reporting:
What AT character is being used? I got numbers close to standard when testing with my fire/psi dom, but numbers WAY below expected when using my SS/EA brute.
If you test on a single map, use /whereami to be able to provide the precise map name.
Have you adjusted any of the "new" settings in your control panel (e.g., how many levels will you allow the game to auto-adjust you?)?
I'll hop on in a bit to test the map-specific theory, but given that comparable (low) drop rates have no been observed in open-zone Cimerora testing, I kind of suspect I was following another red herring there as well.
Very curious about ATs, though. I suspect that at least one person who reported results from a Liberate TV map that were close to Live drop rates was using a dominator. It'd be weird if some ATs had normal drop rates and some were low, but given the complexity of the code base, I doubt it's impossible. -
Quote:My bad, I was unclear. My expecteds were around 57 for salvage and around 24.5 for recipes - that wasn't meant to be the range. If I built the confidence intervals (I've not been doing that because I've not been certain what to use for the SD, and am too lazy to take the % I get out of creating the margin of error and translating it back into real numbers) I'm guessing the upper and lower bounds you mentioned would be consistent with what I had.I get different numbers here. I'd say the expected values are between 34 and 15. This makes your 17 recipes just within the expected range. However it's also consistent with a drop rate of about 1.2%.
I didn't come back on, but I took my fire/psi to Ouroboros and got the same mission I'd been running with my brute to get the 1% drop rate information. It spawned on a different map, but with the same number of enemies total, and with an expected 11.?? recipe drops, I got 12. I'm going to take my brute tonight and run the silly thing twice more, once thru Ouroboros and once on the map as it exists on him "live," and do a /whereami to get the precise map name both times. If I can get it to spawn on a different map and give me a higher drop rate on the same character, then drop back to the cruddy baseline on the same map, I'll be satisfied that I've probably isolated the problem.
I've been carrying this mission around without completing it for... I dunno. 2 years? More? So it may have gotten locked into a bugged version of the map. -
Quote:I'm relieved as well.Definitely not. But when they're that far off of predicted values, that's a pretty strong hint that it's not supposed to work like that.
I am very relieved to see that there's no intentional change, not just because I don't want it to change (!) but because this allows us to focus testing on the test server and trying to identify conditions that may lead to the difference(s).
I'm looking forward to outdoor, non-instanced results.
I took a different character to a different map and got... different results.
Defeat Freaks in TV map
308 lieutenants (lots of downgraded bosses, same as in the council map)
309 minions
I missed probably 5 spawns at the beginning before I realized I wasn't tracking right. That's another 80-ish enemies, none of whom dropped recipes. Of the 617 I tracked, I got:
58 salvage
17 recipes, including a purple
Expecteds are around 57.5 and 24.67. So while I didn't get as many recipes as paragonwiki might suggest, it's (a) much higher than what I was getting on the other map and (b) probably within statistical tolerance.
I guess next I'll try going back to the other map with a different character and see if I replicate the low rates, which would indicate it's map-based. -
Synapse just posted to the CB forums (about 20 minutes ago) to say that there have been no adjustments to recipe or salvage drop rates. He also said he's going to run around on the test server and test them out in-play.
So while my data may be six-sigmas out, they're obviously not impossible. -
Quote:Precise numbers from the time I was tracking minions and lieutenants separately. (I had another 2000 defeats where this was not the case, so we'll ignore those data, despite their being consistent with what I'll present below.)FWIW, I just played with some numbers to try to work out how many defeats are needed in order to establish whether the drop rate has changed or not.
If we assume that the old drop rate is 1 in 40 (2.33%) and the new rate is EarthWyrm's rate of 1 in 100 (1.00%) then we need more than 1500 defeats to tell them apart with 95% confidence. If the drop rate has changed less dramatically then we need more defeats to tell the difference.
In other words, EarthWyrm's runs of around 2000 defeats are significant. (In the statistical sense.)
1996 minions
488 lts
=2484 kills
Salvage: 192
Recipes: 25
Expected recipes: 1996*.026667 + 488*.05333 = 53.23 + 26.03 = 79.29
Expected salvage: 1996*.08 + 488*.1064 = 159.68+51.92 = 211.6
Overall % for recipes = 25/79.29 = .32
Overall % for salvage = 192/211.6 = .91
Using the "quick and dirty" method of computing margins of error
1.96*(sqrt((p*(1-p))/n))
(forgive me if I have one too many or too few parentheses above; I did the calculations a step at a time by hand/calculator, so there's no chance of my having mis-programmed an excel spreadsheet if I goofed on what I typed above)
If I'd had 2500 dudes who were just minions get whacked and we start from the 2.6667% for their expected drops, with 95% probabilities used I think the margin of error is +/- 0.6%. That is, anything from around 2.07% up to 3.27% would be within what we'd expect and wouldn't be cause for concern. Now, it's been a while since I did margins of error, so I may be misinterpreting here, but when I said before that my observations were outside the margin of error, I was being as precise as I could without throwing out all the numbers.
Also, note that I'm starting from a lower expected drop probability than what exists in reality, since almost 20% of my observations were lieutenants, whom ParagonWiki says drop at the 5.3333% rate. So my numbers are even further outside what would be expected. (I think the right expected drop rate for my sample here would be around 3.2%.)
Like UberGuy, I find this testing pretty painful. If all I managed to do was find a map that's borked, that's fine. Last I checked, people aren't big on farming Council warehouses anyway.
Quote:I'm no statistician, so take this with a big pinch of salt. (Or if you are good at statistics then tell us whether this seems reasonable or not.) -
Quote:Nope. The mission is the "Retrieve Void Hunter Rifles" mission for Abyss. Defeating the last mob was simply defeating the last mob - the mission doesn't complete until the proper glowie is clicked, and I clicked no glowies. All drops received were Pool A, and because the mission never completed, Chronologist wouldn't have affected anything (though I didn't have the bonus active at any time). Mission was reset using /leaveteam.Questions: did defeating that last enemy complete the mission? Was the recipe drop the result of mission completion?
Quote:My very small testing indicates what I believe to be expected drop rates. ~ half of liberate 8 spawn no boss, -1, I got 7 commons and an uncommon recipe -
Quote:What it felt like to me - and this is PURELY subjective - was that when I ran the map set for 1, a variation of the streak-breaker was active that got me an average of one recipe/run. At least twice, the last enemy on the map dropped a recipe, which was the only recipe I received on the run. Probably coincidence, but still, it made me wonder.From what pohsyb said, I wouldn't expect it to be supposed to matter. If mob level and virtual team size aren't supposed to matter, it seems awfully far-fetched for mob faction or map to be supposed to.
Of course if it's a bug, anything is possible.
With 52-53 enemies on the map, an average of 1 recipe/map pushes me up to the same general range that you got, and I know you did a lot of your testing set to 1.
My runs set to 8 were the bulk of my observations (just flat-out more dudes to beat up...) and there, if there's a streakbreaker that is set to make sure you get at least one recipe/run, it's not going to activate as soon or as often. (The two runs with 344 enemies/map where I got zero recipe drops would tend to argue against the streakbreaker theory, of course.)
Anyway, I'm just thinking out loud and trying to figure out what's going on. I do worry about the effects this change would have, if it's intended, but I trust that the devs know what they're doing and probably view my data as an aberrant blip on the drop-radar. -
Quote:Indeed. If this is something that's intended, I could have given more time to testing proliferated powersets and other facets of the difficulty slider. Or, you know - anything other than running the same map over and over, to the point of burnout.Frankly, the lack of feedback on this topic has me quite angry. This is one of the most slogging, boring and time-consuming things any of us could have spent closed beta working on, and it would be vastly less time consuming just knowing if it's supposed to be different or not, because not knowing means we should be gathering data from live.
My concern now is whether my testing (all on one map) reflects something specific to that map. I was getting about 1 recipe drop in 100 kills before we went open; I ran a few Rikti missions this evening and got about 1 in 72, though my overall sample size was much, much lower (less than 1/10th).
I may log on Live later and do some wall-running, to see what kind of drop rate I can show over a thousand or so kills. -
Quote:This. Please. My 2500 formal (collected with all data above) and 2000 less formal (didn't count minions and lt's, only total mobs on the map) indicated to me that the overall recipe drop rate was significantly below where it's at on live. My observed %'s were well outside the margin of error.I encourage folks to run a few missions and track the data per mission.
# of Minions defeated
# of LTs defeated
# recipes dropped
# salvage dropped
Those in closed beta found a significant disparity between recipe drop rates (i16b vs. i15) and don't know if it's WAI. Salvage appears to be within specs, but more data may be needed. -
Quote:I disagree. Go to 35-39. 30-34 means that you have a chance at 2 different Fear sets, 2 different Sleep sets, etc., as the low-level mez sets cap at 30, and thus can hit you when you're rolling in the 30-34 range. The only things that cap at 35 are things like Kinetic Combat (which sells for decent scratch) and Entropic Chaos triples, which are less painful to get. Rolling in the 40-44 range eliminates those as well, but very little else.EDIT: I see from your sig that your Shade is level 33 in that case the 30-34 range is probably your best bet since it's got several other high ticket recipes in it although I'm not 100% sure on that.
If I had a level 38 WS and wanted to roll gold specifically for LotG's, I'd roll in the 40-44 range. You still have a crack at the Miracle unique there, and the other things that cap at 40 are not too shabby (Touch of Death, Impervium Armor, Gift of the Ancients, & Decimation). It's the smallest overall pool a level 38 would have access to. If the WS in question is 33, definitely roll 35-39, for the same reason. You want the smallest overall pool, since the recipe will drop at your level regardless. -
Quote:Well said. The only word-of-mouth we're missing out on by having a closed beta first is the WoM that sounds like, "Gawd, this issue is the most unstable, buggy thing EVAR! I'm totally going to play some other game, because this is going to stink!"Every beta since they started closing it, with the exception of the last one, has had two phases: Closed, then Open, before the Issue releases. We will all get to play around with it before it goes live. People should be happy that it's in beta now, and by word of some devs, should be a short one. Focus on the positive things, folks. Life is better that way.
Small closed to give it some initial testing and make sure it's not going to blow up anybody's machines or mass-delete characters, then open. I remember being thrilled when they went to this model, and even though I've never once been in a closed beta, I'm still thrilled.
I do wish we hadn't lost our ability to look at the character creation stuff, tho. -
Quote:Other than patrol xp (the only other meaningful xp multiplier I'm aware of) not working in AE, of course.As far as I'm aware there is no difference between AE and normal missions when it comes to the XP system.
Quote:I assume that recoding the XP system to be able to differentiate between them would take a helluva lot of effort and could throw up some serious bugs. -
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According to CoD's entry on the proc, it only works on other players.
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So it was the first PVP IO then?
Annoying
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Not always. I have that set in boxing on my /EA brute, set to auto-fire. I know it used to go off.
If it's not firing and is not a bug, I'll be dismayed and have to figure out how to get the other piece from the set I didn't use to replace it, next time I get a freespec. -
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According to CoD's entry on the proc, it only works on other players.
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That absolutely sounds like a /bug candidate.
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Indeed. I know that it used to work, since I have it on a number of characters where their proc firing is visible to me. I'll have to log one of them and see if I can replicate. -
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PMing Synapse with this info now...
EDIT: Synapse is having pohsyb look into it. He mentioned that he couldn't reproduce the behavior. There may be something more complex going on than just the team position - maybe the specifics of these particular characters matter somehow.
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I'm full of baseless speculation absent any knowledge of the code base. For instance, I've also considered the possibility that part of the seed value for the drop RNG is derived from the character's name, in addition to the position in the lineup. For this idea, I have ABSOLUTELY no data, anecdotal or otherwise. It's just one of those things that I've wondered about, given pseudo-random streakiness in observations since the drop system was implemented. -
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As an update, I may have discovered something. The person in my 3-box trio who gets 3x trio has always been the second person in the team of 3, due to the order I always invite. By chance, that account client had a rare crash to desktop and when he rejoined, he was person #3 on the team. Now, the new second person on the team is getting the triple tickets. They have been getting triple since they have become #2 on the team, and the old #2 is at #3 now and to normal tickets. I've done 2 or 3 missions this way.
So it could be team position.
Lewis
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While I've never made an exhaustive study of it, I have noticed my drops change as my team position shifted, and suspected that team position was part of the RNG seed that determines who gets any given drop. I'd generally written it off as "random drops are random," but this does offer a bit more evidence that this might not be completely true.
I daresay this could have something to do with why folks reported their sidekicks getting disproportionate drops for a while - not because they were sidekicked, but because being sidekicked forced them into position 2 behind the main account. -
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If Task Force storylines were more accessible to everyone, rather than solely to the team leader...
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It would be great if the whole team received a pop-up window with the text that the team leader sees, in which they can read it and click ok when done. This applies to MA stories also, the whole team rates an MA arc, when only the leader had a chance to actually read the story.
A team-wide text window is needed for both TFs and MA arcs.
~MM
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As it currently stands, the only text team members don't get access to (but leaders do) is the return-to-contact text. All mission briefings and send-off text boxes can be read by anyone if they click the red starburst up in the nav window once the mission is set. This is true for TF/MA/regular missions.
It's not widely known, but folks who want to follow what's going on can definitely do so. -
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So what do you think prices will be at once we can set the missions for 8 people even solo? More people farming. I am thinking some might actually leave the AE to go back to regular critter farms.
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I'd love to think so, but my gut instinct tells me there will be some type of limit or throttling of drops implemented to go along with this.
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I'd been thinking the same. "It's a challenge setting, not a reward setting, so rewards are at [x]% of normal" was the first thing that came to mind.
Much as I'd like to be wrong, these settings seem to fall into the category of, "If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is."
I'm excited about I16, don't get me wrong. This just sounds a tich too good. -
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What about consent from NCsoft? While I don't think there's anything in the EULA expressly forbidding the use of the game servers for research purposes, I would think that if you're using their service and publishing a paper after your findings that there's a reasonable expectation to inform the owners of the servers.
Admittedly, it's possible that he had gotten the go-ahead, since I haven't seen anything about it one way or the other.
Also, how does this paper relate to the member created content portion of the EULA?
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I'm not a legal scholar, so am not sure, but I would suspect that the reason no redname has had an opinion on this (other than Castle stating that Fansy > Twixt) is that their legal department has asked them to step back while legal investigates exactly the questions you raised. -
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However, my example regarding the study in the library fits within the realm of TWIXTs study (regarding, specifically, the misinterpretation prior to the explanation/debriefing). There was no waiver prior to the administering of the experiment (which is why the one lady ran out of the library...she didn't know she was a part of a study and came to different, more frightening, conclusion). In this way the misrepresentation is the failure to mention that an experiment is taking place, most people assume they are not participating in experiments during everyday life.
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The other quote to which I was responding is germane here. If there was no reasonable expectation of harm (and harm gets defined VERY broadly by IRBs), then this would be approvable research. If there was predictable harm, it becomes more difficult to approve.
I think that what Myers proposed (and he had to propose something; even if he proposed it as exempt research, it had to go through a separate board who had to review it and make sure it qualified as exempt status, based on what's been posted to these forums) would have predictably led to a stress response on the part of those he targeted. I've been at other universities where studies evoking stress responses received heightened scrutiny (I saw one bounced because the person used 42-degree water instead of 45-degree water to create physiological stress...).
If, on the other hand, he never submitted any type of proposal to his IRB, then conducted his research while in their employment and allowed himself to be identified as a faculty member at Loyola while presenting research the university had never reviewed or sanctioned, that strikes me as a pretty big problem. I will act on the assumption that he did submit something, and go from there.
The reality, unfortunately, is that I don't know what Myers proposed/submitted.
With only what's been made public knowledge, I have the following opinions:
I think he made questionable decisions. I do not think the failure to obtain informed consent was one of them that will ultimately be actionable. Naturalistic observation/ethnographic research cannot be conducted if you ask the population, "Will you be in my study?"
It is unclear whether Myers ended his research when he received his "death threat", which should have been a clear indication that things had gone too far and that even if harm had not been anticipated, he was creating more stress and frustration than was healthy. If he stopped at that point, then I put him in the same general camp as Zimbardo, who pulled the plug on his Prison studies when it became clear the reactions were more than anticipated - harm should have been predicted, but at least was acted upon when it became impossible to ignore. It is worth noting that Zimbardo was "too close" to his research to recognize the harm it was causing himself, and had to have it pointed out to him by an assistant. This may be another parallel between Myers and Zimbardo - both may have been too close to their research to recognize the human harm that potentially went along with the situation they created, instead focusing on the study itself. It's possible for scientists to get tunnel vision, after all. Additionally, Zimbardo did at least have group discussions after he was done, to help participants deal with what they'd experienced. If Myers did not stop his research after it became clear that his methods could lead to death threats (and it doesn't sound like he did, since the threat came 2 years ago, and his "quit" blog was November of last year), I think that's a problem.
His descriptions of his/Twixt's activities do not make it sound like he remained objective as he engaged in his data collection. Narrative information from others suggest that he was far from it. I point to iltat's posts, and those of others, as references.
I believe that utilizing his manipulation with a population that would predictably include minors was very ill-advised.
I believe that inducing stress and making people angry when he has no way to know whether any of the individuals with whom he is interacting are naturally aggressive (I'm sure that's not true of anyone who PvPs in this or any other game, of course...) or have anger management issues would be a questionable decision.
I think that, despite what he seems to say (the academic in me keeps wanting to cite, but I'm too tired to go searching through all the websites I've read related to this topic in the past few days), systematic norm violation could predictably have led to frustration, anger, and stress responses, particularly in a population where aggression against other players is rewarded, all of which in the eyes of many IRBs constitute "harm" and which may have other unforeseeable side effects.
I think that an internal review at Loyola (which has been reported somewhere around here - was it in the Champion thread?) is the proper response, and trust that the individuals who have full information on precisely what he proposed, and Myers' public behavior since, will be able to reach a satisfactory judgment of his culpability, if there is any.
I think that if Myers submitted a proposal in which he did not specify that the population would include minors, that the population in PvP zones may be more aggressive/competitive than the population average, and otherwise did not adequately describe the group to be targeted with his manipulation, some of the blame must fall on the responsible reviewers for not requesting more detail. An IRB that approves research it does not understand cannot possibly be protecting the interests of participants. I'm not saying this is what happened; I'm just saying that Myers may not be the only one who needs to be held responsible.
If the study were proposed at "face value" - that is, if a professor submitted something that said he intended to repeatedly violate social norms in an online community in order to observe the results - I would like to think that I would not approve it on the grounds that it might result in psychological harm, however minor. Without knowing exactly what Myers proposed, though, it's hard for me to say.
I hope the concerns that I outlined above are sufficient to answer your question.
tl;dr version: Without knowing precisely what he proposed to do, I'm not sure of the ethics, but have an awful lot of opinions based on the partial information available to those of us outside the study. -
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For the aggresion/testosterone one did you sign a new consent at the end? I would think that they would have to allow you to opt out once you knew the true nature of the study.
I understand the need for "blinding" but in your examples there was no harm or stress. IMO it isn't really like what Myers did at all, he purposly stressed these people.
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The other problem is that there can be no "misrepresentation" of the purpose of a study when there is no knowledge of being part of a study. So the entire parallel to the taste bud study fails to hold up.
Speaking purely as someone who teaches psychology in a university setting, and who has taught graduate research methods, and is awaiting an appointment to my university's institutional review board, of course. -
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I DID bug it, and I DID post on the forums about it. I don't know what else was expected.
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And we're very appreciative that you took the time to do so. I don't want you guys to infer that bugging things in game is useless, just that it's only one avenue to bring things to our attention. We get bugs from many sources. Sometimes they come from QA, sometimes they're pulled from the forums, other times they come from PMs or even personal experiences.
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That's fair. I know that with really game-breaking stuff (the crash that happened every time you accessed the black market a couple of months back) it got fixed almost immediately after somebody sent Ghost Falcon a pm. I wouldn't bother with that route for anything else, since most of the time /bug is fine. It's just a matter of us prioritizing, too. -
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So lemme see if I got this right...
OPTICAL_ILLUSION = Twixt?
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Nah. More likely one of his students.
"The accusation is interesting mainly because Myers's definition of griefing is interesting. Like most people, he agrees that the effect of griefing is to make its victims feel "stupid/clueless/lame/ineffectual," but for him the essence lies in the grief player's invention of new rules for himself -- a metagame that trumps the game the victims think they're playing and effectively rubs their noses in the message that "your rules are not as real/true/powerful as my rules." "
From link
I'm sure Twixt and O_I would claim that it's not "inventing new rules" to do things that are within the designed parameters of the game but that are frowned upon by the majority. That presupposes a primacy of what can be done above all else, and also argues based on consequence (i.e., "He was never banned, so he never did anything wrong"). Others would suggest that violating accepted norms in a zone is a form of inventing new rules for that zone. It devolves into semantics, which I'm not interested in arguing.
I'm curious how they would respond to the rest of the offered paragraph, though. Droning and fear/mob/fear/debt both seem to be designed to make other players feel "lame/ineffectual", and certainly the crowing about "never violated the EULA" and "played within the rules" speaks to a rubbing of the nose in the message that the socially consensual rules are not as real or powerful as those utilized by Twixt.
Seems rather like Myers' own definition makes him a griefer, despite what he and his acolyte would claim.