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Quote:I didn't agree with them not touching it then, either, but the Devs have consistently made poor decisions when it comes to Regen (both buffs and debuffs), and I don't think they quite get it.The devs did a full pass on Psi Assault when they nerfed Psi Shockwave to heck and back, so not really sure where this nerf call for Drain Psyche is coming from.
I really love the power, but in its current incarnation it is ridiculously overpowered, and it would remain so on a Brute (even more so, because of the higher max hp there). -
Quote:The other problem that Power Burst has is that kb isn't something that can be done indefinitely without good timing due to the ragdoll suppression on KB, and it being a chance for KB means you can't really do that. Power Burst is basically a poster child for bad tier 3 blasts, and I doubt ArcanaVille and I are the only Energy Blasters to skip it in favor of the just taking the tier 1 and tier 2.Hmmm. I am not sure I agree. I love Cosmic Burst, but Blazing Arrow's 80 foot range actually comes in handy in many situations and I would say I find it to be at least equal in benefit to the stun. I'll give you Power Burst. The chance for KB is not as useful as the stun. However, it is still very useful.
*looks at the list*
Oh, right, Telekinetic Blast. *sighs* Telekinetic Blast is Power Burst that operates at 80' and animates in half the time... and has a stronger KB mag (same chance).
The woes of being an Energy Blaster. -
Quote:It's a handy-dandy tool... But it doesn't work with the newest sets yet. That should change soon...Hey Jawbreaker - you need to download another CohTitan program called Titan Sentinel.
This also does extra things like track badges, etc.
*gets back to work making sure Staff Fighting is ready* -
Quote:Were you explicitly looking at just one target for Invincibility, because at the saturation point, the Scrapper would have 35.7% S/L Def, using your simple metric gives it (.22/.143)*(.84/.30)*(2400/1600)=6.46.S/L def =25%
S//L resistance = 70%
HP = 2400 hp ::from dull pain and accolades::
A blaster using the ice epic
S/L def = 28 %
S/l Resistance = 16%
HP = 1609 from frostwork and accolades
the scrapper/blaster overall survivability = (def mitigation ratio)*(resistance mitigation ratio) * (hp ratio)
= (.22/.25)* (.84/.30)* (2400/1600) = 3.69
3.7 is much less than 20
None of this takes into account status effects, or the fact the blaster can take a second heal and fight at range. -
But neither of those are nearly as significant as the guaranteed stun that Rad provides, which was all that I meant. As ArcanaVille pointed out, Power Burst is a very minor power increase over Power Bolt and Power Blast, and those powers can be used while mezzed.
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For varying levels of significant... again, Power Burst need not apply. By that I mean it has a 60% chance of mag 3.3 KB, which is a bit better than Power Blast's 30% chance of mag 1.6 KB, but isn't exactly a significant increase. Blazing Arrow is in the same category as Blaze as just having extra damage.
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My only hope is that they'll give Drain Psyche to this set, then use that as an excuse to fix that power.
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Quote:We used to joke that Tanks didn't grab aggro, my Blaster let them take it.That's why damage will not help blasters teaming. Their problem is doing too much damage so they draw aggro, without killing the stuff. So unless their opening AoE wipes out the spawn extra damage will just make it harder on them.
Blasters will only perform better in teams if they generate less aggro for their attacks -
Quote:I just did an hour and 4 minutes each (due to the Blaster being stuck in a mission at the hour mark, and me going through to finish it - he was first, so it didn't mess up my results and I made sure the Stalker got the extra time) of a Beam/Energy Blaster and an Elec/Energy Stalker. Beam Rifle is something I played the hell out of in beta in order to critique it, then subsequently never rolled up because I'd decided to refuse to play Blasters until they got their issues addressed (this repeated when Dark/Dark hit beta). For the record, I did eventually roll up a Fire/Dark Blaster, but that was because I was getting pretty burnt out on how easy the game was, and decided that only a Blaster would provide me with the danger level in order to keep me interested.Your blaster and stalker don't have to match theirs, but they do have to match each other.
Anyways, unlike the others, I went through blueside, without any vet powers or store powers. I played them both through the tutorial, and started my timers as soon as I got out. I did Matthew Habashy, Sandra Costel, Thiery, then hopped over to the Hollows and did Prescott's arc. The blaster hit the hour mark during the last mission of Prescott, finished it, and turned in the story arc, bumping him up to level 8. The stalker finished that mission three minutes earlier (also hitting level 8 from story arc xp) and so I used that time to hit the trainer and do Flux's first mission (defeat 10 outcast).
Interesting things I've noticed:
The updated Atlas Park is really good for placing things near each other in a sequential manner, so that even though I didn't have Ninja Run, I didn't spend much time running between missions. In fact, I didn't take a travel power when I could because I didn't really need it and my early power picks are both good for both ATs. That rather hurt me when I went to the Hollows and wound up with a "Defeat all Outcasts in base" that was 700 yards away - it was closer on the Stalker, which is responsible for some part of that 3 minute difference.
On the other hand, I didn't hit a trainer at all between level 2 and 6, because the missions were all right next to each other, and the only trainer was so far away. This meant that for the first 32-33 minutes of gameplay, the Blaster had 3 attack powers (plus Brawl and the Tranq Darts) while the Stalker only had 2 attack powers (plus Brawl and the Tranq Darts). Oddly enough, I didn't really notice the lack after a couple of missions, when I got into the hang of my powers... I suspect this is due to the Blaster powers having long cycle times and doing a lot more overkill damage, as the tier 2 blast would almost but not quite kill minions, leaving them still outside Brawl range, but make the tier 1 attack so useless. It helps that crits automatically mean one less attack on an enemy, while higher blaster damage plus defiance rarely changed the number of attacks.
Strangely enough, I hit level 8 significantly faster than either THB or Arcanaville did (level 2 - 8 was 64 minutes for my blaster, 85 for THB's). I'm guessing that has to do with the fact that I hit 4 different story arcs, which have hefty xp bonuses at this level.
Anyways, here's my time (note: for missions, I give the time for when I enter the door or reach the area where kill targets are... also, I have seconds in my notes, but only listing minutes here):
Beam/Energy Blaster
0:00 Level 2, out of tutorial
0:05 Level 3
0:09 Ritual of Souls (last Matthew mission)
0:12 Speak to Sandra Costel
0:13 Level 4
0:16 Confront Skull Leader
0:17 Stop Skulls attack
0:20 Put a stop to Skuls operation
0:23 Level 5
0:24 Turn in Sandra's Arc, speak to Thiery
0:25 Defeat 15 Hellions, er, Arachnos
0:29 Defeat Arachnos Commanders
0:32 Level 6
0:32 Find 3 hidden explosives
0:33 Destroy 3 pylons
0:36 Save Matthew Habashy
0:42 End of Thiery Arc
0:45 Defeat 10 Outcast (Prescott) - yes, that's 3 minutes to turn in my levels from 3 to 6, and travel to the Hollows via Sprint
0:46 Level 7
0:47 Defeat 10 Trolls
0:53 Defeat all Outcast in base (fun travel time)
0:58 Defeat all outcast in 2nd Base
1:04 Level 8 (from turning in the story arc)
Electric/Energy Stalker
0:00 Level 2, out of tutorial
0:05 Level 3
0:08 Ritual of Souls (last Matthew mission)
0:11 Speak to Sandra Costel
0:13 Level 4
0:17 Confront Skull Leader
0:18 Stop Skulls attack
0:21 Put a stop to Skuls operation
0:23 Level 5
0:24 Turn in Sandra's Arc, speak to Thiery
0:25 Defeat 15 Hellions, er, Arachnos
0:28 Defeat Arachnos Commanders
0:32 Level 6
0:32 Find 3 hidden explosives
0:33 Destroy 3 pylons
0:36 Save Matthew Habashy
0:42 End of Thiery Arc
0:44 Defeat 10 Outcast (Prescott) - yes, that's 3 minutes to turn in my levels from 3 to 6, and travel to the Hollows via Sprint
0:46 Level 7
0:46 Defeat 10 Trolls
0:49 Defeat all Outcast in base (fun travel time)
0:55 Defeat all outcast in 2nd Base
1:01 Level 8 (from turning in the story arc)
1:02 Defeat 10 outcast (Flux) -
Quote:If I match them, that would mean vet powers and running redside content, yes? Otherwise, I'm introducing extra noise into the results.Go for it, I'm happy to get more data points. This is definitely not the most rigorous stats analysis in the world. I can list a half dozen flaws already, that is, things I might be doing wrong, Arcanaville and TwoHeadedBoy are doing great! But if you hold your blaster and your stalker to the same rules, as much as you can, good enough, I say.
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No. Because I said supplanted, not generated. Alternate theories existed, but they didn't replace the Ptolemaic and other heliocentric models until people could perform accurate tests. Kepler's work, for example, wasn't generally accepted until after his death, when people were able to test his work by making a prediction (about the transit of Mercury and Venus) and then performing an experiment to test it (by watching for said transit - Horrox using a telescope to do precisely that).
Quote:Let me see if this sounds familiar.
The devs sample the state of the game and see how players are perfoming at various tasks. They see that the players are doing better at some than they would like and worse at others than they would like. They take the statistics and make adjustments according to them, introducing an entirely new set of problems.
Well amazing, If that isn't what gave us defiance 2.0, and a merit rewards system that over rewards hero task forces and under rewards.
It's actually a thank god moment that they don't iterate the system more often as it would likely throw the whole thing into a state of complete chaos.
The PPM is a perfect example of the usefulness of data: they defined a rule that determined what the balanced equivalent PPM:flat% should be. It passed whatever internal balance pass they have, then they pushed it to live. Players noticed these things were substantially more powerful than the existing procs, and some players began to perform statistical analysis to determine what the proc-rate was... we were able to uncover and confirm the dev formula without their assistance, as well as discovering the bug that they're only now fixing regarding cone powers.
Quote:I can give all kinds of examples with dynamic systems where taking statistics of how the system is behaving at a given point in time and making adjustments based on them would produce completely undesirable results.
However I get the feeling from your argument that watching the statistics of when a television picture was bad would let you fix it, that there is nothing in the world that would convince you that it is an inappropriate method.
Quote:Just to ask, what would it take to convince you, you are wrong on this matter ? You keep holding forth ever more wrong statement and each time they are refuted you make a greater stretch to support them.
To answer your question with honesty, I'm not sure you can: you are the one making the more extraordinary claim - that observation, experimentation, and numerical analysis are unscientific. But I would love to be convinced! If you somehow manage to demonstrate that it is possible to create a perfect model without testing it, where human behavior is concerned, then I will do everything in my power to see your work published and congratulate on the biggest advance in Economics in the history of the Nobel Prize.
I'm not really sure there's much point to continuing this discussion here, where it is going up against the meaning and purpose of the thread. As such...
*changing gears*
I think I'll try out this Blaster vs Stalker test. Should I try one without vet powers? -
Quote:When they were adding fifth powers to the epic pools, I really wanted Lightning Rod to be the one added to the Electric pool.Spring attack did even more damage in beta - a lot more. It was reduced when I pointed out the original version was arguably better than lightning rod. I don't fault the devs for wanting to give the players a nice AoE attack in the power pools, and add some flair to the leaping pool. That's all good. But why is it so easy to make a powerful Spring attack, but so difficult to say "maybe the nukes should all be really useful." More thought was placed into making spring attack worth taking in a couple months than has been spent on the same for Nova in eight years.
Lightning Rod... Shield Charge... Spring Attack... That whole line really bums me out. Judgment powers just rub it in. -
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The Custom Powerset is around $9300, might be wor-
Wait a minute. Over 9000? God. -
Quote:And even still, Beam Rifle quite possible beats out Fire for single target damage, given -Resistance debuff (and that's not counting the -Regen).Outside of Fire, its unclear who does more damage. It comes down to number of AoEs and the DPA of single target attacks, depending on what you're looking at. And actually Scrappers and Brutes tend to have just as many AoEs: some powersets have more and some less. But they tend on average to have significantly better DPA these days since animation acceleration made them faster.
Quote:Against zero resistance targets, up to the low/mid 20s or so. Then health outpaces torrent + explosive blast by just enough to make that iffy. I remember in the old days leaving things with a sliver in Talos once I got into the high twenties, and that hasn't changed much since then, even with Defiance 2.0.
But I will say the scatter from that is overestimated, and the mitigation from torrent and explosive blast is among the best multi-target offensive mitigation you can get as a blaster, short of Siren's Song. As long as you are not facing knock resistant targets. -
Quote:My DM/SD Brute regular one-shots minions with Midnight Grasp... The exact same setup mentioned above of "high fury + AAO + Soul Drain" (and unlike Build Up, Soul Drain can be up all the time). AAO really busts my chops: why in the world is a Defense set providing better offense buffing than anything Blasters get access to? See also: why don't Blasters get Fiery Embrace in /Fire? Etc. etc.Not true at all. When buildup is active, I do roughly 300% of base damage for the power (100% base, +100% for buildup, +100% for slotting). When buildup isn't active, I do roughly 200% of base damage. Buildup being active one third of the time means on average I would do roughly 233% of base damage. So going from buildup active a third of the time to buildup active all the time would mean my damage increased roughly 30% over what I normally do. That's a long way from a three-fold increase in damage.
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Quote:I dunno, AR/Energy has pretty good synergy, with the cones and Boost Range, plus EM adding the good ST damage that AR is missing.If I was going to run a test like this pacing a Blaster against a Scrapper, I would probably pick AR/Energy vs BattleAxe/Invuln. They are probably about as close to average performance in each archetype and comparable to each other in damage types as you could get. Its a bit too much AoE on the blaster side, but the better equivalent from that perspective and damage mitigation perspective would probably be radiation blast, but that's a completely different damage type with no easy comparable melee side set. Electric melee has drain which complicates the comparison: that drain is almost useless against minions and Lts which would dominate the early parts of the test.
I don't have the time to dedicate to this type of testing at the moment, but that's probably the combination I would use if I did. No combination would be perfect, though, so a better test would probably pick a few combinations to test against each other collectively. -
The contractor renovating my bathroom won't be done until Tuesday or so of next week. After I get back home, I'll start working on the various Mids issues that people have reported.
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Quote:And that was their design decision and, quite possibly, their mistake. That wasn't the fault of statistics. This is the fault of the Devs constructing their Theory of TF Merit Rewards, then using it without performing any of the iterative processes we've discussed. In general, the Devs are very reluctant to do any kind of iterative tweaking, as they like to "get it right the first time" (even if there's no way to know for sure) then only return to it a few years later.The devs specifically used median run time and the following formula.
(MedianTime / MPM) * TaskModifier * TimesRunModifier * TimeModifier + ArtificialModifiers
http://paragonwiki.com/wiki/Merit_Rewards
In other words they took a couple of statistics for each TF and allowed it to set the run times.
As ArcanaVille said above, one of the primary skills behind statistical analysis is knowing how to read it properly, and knowing what it does and doesn't tell you. It could tell the Devs that the Rewards are imbalanced between two TFs, but it doesn't necessarily tell the Devs how to fix it: it can help, by giving clues as to why something is faster or slower, but it doesn't tell the Devs "construct a formula and use that, don't tweak the content of the TFs".
Quote:See that is a really interesting idea lets see what the problem is with it. You are using a sample set of the people currently playing blasters. We know that blasters start as the most popular archetype and end as the third most popular archetype. Intrinsically sampling the statistics of people playing blasters to search for signals of a problem understates the players that found the problem and just decided not to play blasters anymore, while at the same time overstating the effects of people that never felt there was a problem.
Quote:Now if you go about things by modeling blaster performance you are in a much better situation. In terms of the game I don't have to experiment to validate my model the way I would in the real world. Why ? Because barring bugs I know what the maximum damage output can be, I Know how many hitpoints they can have and I know how rapidly and under what conditions they can recover them. For years I have been saying these come up short relative to the other ATs. You don't need to sample the data of player base to know that blasters will underperform. It is written on their very D.N.A.. What looking at the data of how a particular set of players is doing with them in the context of the wider game just processes their inherent strengths and weaknesses through a series of funhouse mirrors.
Quote:Anyway on to the history of science portion.
Quote:Neither Kepler's laws of planetary motion, nor the Heliocentric system were developed with use of the telescope. When you say people used it to predict things you mean they used it to predict things incorrectly. The fact that the tables derived from ptolemy's epicycles were predicting things incorrectly helped prompt the development of the heliocentric model. The telescope was what allowed Galileo to demolish any argument that the universe was geocentric in nature because you could look through it and see that parts clearly were not.
Kepler's Laws of Motions were created in response to Tycho Brahe's observations, which were in direct contradiction to the predictions made by the Ptolemaic system (e.g. that all stars would be close enough to have an observable parallax effect). Making predictions, finding those predictions to be incorrect, then correcting your model (going from geocentric to heliocentric) is exactly the way the scientific process works.
Quote:The world view was that waves need a medium to propagate. When you say magically invent more accurate models, in this case it would mean logically exploring the consequences of the idea that light waves did not need a medium to propagate. This is very similar to epicycle being invented to preserve the concept that the earth was at the center of the universe,
Quote:Regarding Test Driven Development, we used to call that trial and error. It may work but its a sure sign that the people using it just don't have a better method available. -
Quote:Sure it did. People used it to predict things like when and where Venus would appear in the sky. That's why it wasn't until telescopes came around - thus increasing the amount of data available and allowing for early scientists to compare it to the predictions of the Ptolemaic - that alternative theories supplanted it.No the problem was that epicycles etc never predicted more than the data already showed. Given enough terms you can fit a curve to any dataset.
This is basically how things like Test Driven Development work; and they do work. You take an iterative process of examining your data, altering the model to fit, then examining new data, rinse and repeat - periodically taking the time to refine the model, applying rules like Okkam's Razor. That is how science works, too, because there's no way for people to magically know the correctness of their model; all we can do is create more predictions, perform more tests, then alter the existing model. Most things work this way, and very rarely does it require you to come up with a completely new model from scratch.
Quote:Think of the situation where you have an older vintage television that has bad over the air reception. This isn't usually a problem because the person watching it can't see. Every so often the picture gets bad enough that it upsets the viewer to the point they feel the need to do something about it. They get up adjust the antenna, bang the TV on the side, maybe assume a particular position relative to the set and after doing one of these things their picture gets better.
You have a 100% correlation between their taking action and the picture improving. So obviously what they were doing was fixing the problem. No, the problem is that the set is old and the capacitors in the tuning system are aging out, their values now vary over time. When their values are still in range the phase locked loops can properly sync to the signal when they aren't too bad Mr. Couch Potato.
Quote:This is exactly the same problem that permeates this game. Take task force rewards you want TFs to give an average merit reward/unit time across the player base. What do you do ? You sample the times it took to run the given task force and peg their rewards according to that number. This ignores the fact that the people who speed run tfs can see what you are doing and adjust their behavior accordingly. What is more those same people were overwhelmingly abusing the TFs they could break. The end result ? you get 9 merit Edens, 9 Merit Katies, while the people that abuse the system go off to run down citadel and manticore.
Quote:The problem with Ether was that it was thrown out there solely for the purpose of preserving a world view.
Quote:In the context of this discussion its the equivalent of saying blasters don't work well because of (Snipes being poor choices, Crashing nukes being traps, blaster attacks not being more end efficient). They are obviously less desired powers but how badly hurt can blasters be by things they don't use ?
For the sake of argument lets say we go down the really bad process of saying aha we have sampled blaster performance and they still underperform. It's not as bad as it was before so our last fix to the AT did most of the job lets fix some of the minor problems that remain. We get another round of bad fixes that may or may not have an effect on the AT. Fixing Snipes would be a good example of this. Blaming an AT's problems on a power that people mostly skip and don't use very much when they do take really won't fix the AT. Matter of fact improving snipes, would likely widen the gap between blasters and other ranged ATs that have access to them.
I don't think "will accidentally buff Defenders, Corruptors, Dominators, Stalkers, and Scrappers" is as big a concern as you make it. For one, they could only apply the changes to Blasters (after all, Dominators got their snipes revamped into higher damaging powers and nobody else saw it) - though I don't like this, because Blast Sets are pretty poor for everybody, and its only because Corrs and Defs have such awesome Support Sets that they get by. For two, the idea would not be to buff snipes in isolation, but in conjunction with other things that would result in an offensive synergy, making the changes more valuable to Blasters than to others. -
Quote:We didn't say anything about theories. You have to be careful when conflating scientific theories and the scientific method with statistical analysis and data gathering. The big reason why the things you list above are bunk is not because they were created by modeling what people observed - that's exactly the way science works. The crazy circle-inside-circles system that Ptolemy built for describing the observable universe was, likewise, wrong, but it was still a good model that served its purpose for a long time. Likewise, Galileo and Copernicus' observations led to them to make even better models. Rinse and repeat. Making models based upon your observations is the way things should go.No. Epicycles and Luminous Ether, Chinese cosmology and atronomy are what you get when all you demand from your theories is that they fit the available data. Beautiful, descriptive and even powerful over the range of data that were collected, but all completely wrong and not even close to right.
In this case there is no excuse not to model and use the model to make the judgment call. Its not difficult if you have the data available in a usable form. Its hardly an unreasonable expectation that devs would have the information available.
Edit as to the rest, sorry its just making excuses for not doing things properly.
The problem with things like Astrology is that you can't test them. The model itself isn't making verifiable predictions that you can test. When I say that Religion is when you alter the Data to fit the Model, that's exactly what I mean: when you perform a test, you then attack the test if it doesn't fit the Model, then tweak and throw out the results until it does fit the Model.
Luminiferous ether, by the way, is a poor example. It was an inaccurate model (as we now know), but it was a scientifically valid one. It was verifiable, people were able to draw conclusions and make predictions based upon it, and the Michelson-Morley experiment (among others) tested it and found it wanting.