Arcanaville

Arcanaville
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  1. So although I did a similar calculation to the one presented at the top of the thread that gives a figure of merit of scourge of 30%, I've never actually said that was my best estimate for scourge because it doesn't factor in the effect of accelerating damage. In effect, the graph posted by GuyPerfect assumes you "live" at each percentage point for about the same amount of time, but scourge itself invalidates that assumption: as target health drops, corruptor damage increases, and the corruptor thus spends less and less time at lower and lower target health levels**. Basically, the curve shouldn't be weighted evenly, but rather almost as an inverse of its own value.

    Thinking about this discretely, its obvious that what scourge does is reduce the average number of attacks it takes to defeat a target. Simplifying the situation a bit, I looked at the case where the corruptors attacks averaged some value as a percentage of the target's health. So for example if the corruptor's attacks averaged 10% of the target's health, it would take ten hits to defeat that target on average. Scourge would reduce that value statistically. I then wrote a problem to simply stochastically compute the percentage chance of a 10 hit kill being reduced to a 9 hit kill, an 8 hit kill, and so on. Since scourge doesn't kick in until health reaches 50%, and the best you can do is double your hits to 20% of the target's health, the best case scenario is scourge triggers every time its possible, and you end up with an eight hit kill (5 hits for 50% health, and then three hits for 60% health total, defeating the target).

    Summarizing, I get this chart:

    Code:
    pct	average	norm	benefit
    10	8.906	10	1.123
    11	8.554	10	1.169
    12	7.838	9	1.148
    13	7.144	8	1.120
    14	6.936	8	1.153
    15	6.281	7	1.114
    16	6.162	7	1.136
    17	5.536	6	1.084
    18	5.405	6	1.110
    19	5.288	6	1.135
    20	4.750	5	1.053
    21	4.675	5	1.070
    22	4.599	5	1.087
    23	4.525	5	1.105
    24	4.450	5	1.124
    25	4.000	4	1.000
    26	3.950	4	1.013
    27	3.900	4	1.026
    28	3.850	4	1.039
    29	3.800	4	1.053
    30	3.750	4	1.067
    31	3.700	4	1.081
    32	3.650	4	1.096
    33	3.600	4	1.111
    34	3.000	3	1.000
    35	3.000	3	1.000
    36	3.000	3	1.000
    37	3.000	3	1.000
    38	3.000	3	1.000
    39	3.000	3	1.000
    40	3.000	3	1.000
    Assuming no regeneration, the right column is the effective damage buff when the average attack hits for a percentage of total health equal to the left column. Notice that between 10% per hit and 24% per hit its between 5 and 17%, averaging about 12%. That's actually closer to my guestimate for scourge's true average benefit under normal gaming conditions (my guestimate prior to today was about 15%). Notice also that once you start hitting for more than about a third of total health scourge stops doing anything. That's because you have to get at least two hits below 50% for scourge to do anything: if you only deal one hit below 50% scourge has no future hit to buff. (Note also that hitting for exactly precisely 25% of total health with no regeneration factored in is a special edge case).

    This is a monte carlo version of the analysis Starsman mentions above, and generates somewhat different results. The analysis code is pretty straight forward:

    Code:
    import random, math
    
    trials = 1000000
    
    for a in xrange(10,41,1):
    
        hit_ar = [0]*12
    
        for loop1 in xrange(0,trials):
            h = 100
            hits = 0
            while h > 0:
    
                # scourge percent
                spct = (50 - h) * 0.025
                if spct < 0:
                    spct = 0
    
                sroll = random.random()
                if sroll <= spct:
                    h = h - 2 * a
                else:
                    h = h - a
    
                hits = hits + 1
                
            hit_ar[hits] = hit_ar[hits] + 1
    
        hc = 0.0
        for loopc in xrange(0,12):
            hc = hc + hit_ar[loopc] * loopc
        hav = hc / trials
            
        print a, hit_ar, round(hav,3), math.ceil(100.0/a), round(math.ceil(100.0/a)/hav,3)
    (python 2.x)

    With 1,000,000 trials per case, the estimates appear to be accurate to one part in a thousand.


    ** Highlighted by the fight with Tyrant in the Magisterium trial, where peculiar mechanics makes the exact opposite thing usually happen.
  2. Quote:
    Originally Posted by dugfromthearth View Post
    sounds like blasters are overpowered and need to be nerfed
    Go to your room.
  3. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Another_Fan View Post
    It is actually getting the heal as well ? Well that puts my AR/Ment in the retirement home.
    According to Arbiter Hawk, the heal (relative to melee Energize) is being lowered, but the +regen is being improved (I presume by being increased in uptime to make it easily perma and probably increased in magnitude to make it plus the heal competitive with the other sustain toggles).
  4. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Hyperstrike View Post
    With a recharge of 37-38 seconds, Burnout almost isn't necessary.

    You're the numbers wonk here. Factor out the full activation+animation times against floored recharge numbers for BU+AIM+NUKE+Recovery Power
    I already know my I24 Nova recharge is going to be about 40 seconds. But BU+Aim+Nova+Burnout+BU+Aim+Nova is living the dream.
  5. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dark_Tempest View Post
    Have they said if they are going to change Conserve Power down time?
    **
    â– Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth
    ALBERT EINSTEIN
    Conserve Power is becoming an Energize variant, with different numbers for heal and regen, but with most likely a better uptime (the intent is for the buffs to be easily perma).
  6. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Hyperstrike View Post
    Yeah. It'd be funny to see a nuke blaster running around going

    "Hey there!"
    *BOOM!*
    "How's it.."
    *BOOM!*
    "..going?"
    *BOOM!*
    "Oh! And did I mention?"
    *BOOM!*
    "Mwahahahahaaha!"
    My preliminary I24 Energy/Energy build has Burnout.
  7. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Another_Fan View Post
    Part of the change to the support sets is conserve power is becoming some sort of energize clone. Can be permed and gives a large regeneration buff.

    I am really surprised people have been going ape over the changes to devices when energy manipulation really is the break away winner. Conserve power is even more valuable because of the new nukes. Nothing like having an extra free 120% end reduction for powers that cost 27 end.
    I've been saying Energy looks to be the overall winner in I24 buffs from the beginning, but I don't think the gap is as large as you think it is. For one thing, the conserve power effect in Energy is going to be partially offset by recovery buffs in the sustain toggles. For example, Field Operative was showing effectively +92% recovery in the stream demo (1.53%/sec recovery). That's not *quite* as good as a very strong conserve power (although we don't know the Energize numbers yet) but its really really good: even if that's a slotted number its twice as strong as slotted stamina.

    The reason they are called sustain powers is that Arbiter Hawk wanted Blasters to still be vulnerable to bursts of damage, but outside of that he wanted them to be the energizer bunny: go and go and go.
  8. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Electric-Knight View Post
    Hahaha... You're pushing it, but it's still not catching on!?!
    I keep forgetting how lazy we are: I probably need to make it into an animated gif.

    And I put actual effort into that: I didn't just add two words to the alien guy's face or google a picture of a cat. I have to get some sort of return on investment there or I won't be able to write off the time.
  9. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Moderator 09 View Post
    I want to start out by saying that my chasing my dream to get in the game industry would not have happened if not for you.
    Don't blame me if you're crazy enough to get into this industry; I'm not taking the fall for that one.
  10. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Hyperstrike View Post
    I'm sorry that people (myself included) had to dig at you so hard to get this sort of response. But there are times when your "diplomatic answers" just get in the way. Or worse, makes it worse
    I have often volunteered to be the anti-Zwillinger. My title would be "Community Mismanager" and my job would be to give everyone asking for a red name response the specific response they deserved at that moment.

    Positron vetoed the idea, because he's thinking he can get at least 25000 paragon points selling the position in the Paragon Store.
  11. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Electric-Knight View Post
    Besides, all of these replies and not one vote for Black Pebble???
    Does this count?
  12. Arcanaville

    Bio Armor

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Jack_NoMind View Post
    Ice and Stone are arguably "solid" at resisting def debuff.

    As is calling a time out for 30s of every two minutes.
    Really only SR can "stop" cascade failure in most cases. Shields is only up there because the devs haven't gotten around to fixing Active Defense yet (or at least I don't remember that getting fixed). At 52% DDR or so things get hazy: its certainly better than nothing and its strong resistance in a relative sense, but it won't really "stop" cascade failure because the debuffs will still hit too hard to prevent coming rapidly off the floor. It'll slow it down a bit but you're likely to be popping lucks periodically to stave off cascading downward.
  13. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Zwillinger View Post
    But...but...

    What if I want to be evil...
  14. Arcanaville

    Bio Armor

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Blue_Centurion View Post
    I see no defense debuff resistance in it's write up on Wiki. Unless I missed something, or they change it in Beta, in needs to have a whole lot (read almost unbalancing) amount of other good stuff to make me pick it as anything other than a gimmick armor.

    My builds revolve around softcap def 1st, solid resists, healing, etc afterwards. without a solid defense debuff resistance to stop cascading failure i always look at an armor as suspect when building for true tankiness.
    So you're limiting yourself to Shield and SR tankers?
  15. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Commander View Post
    Zwil, Hit Streak, or whoever else...

    Can we get clarification on if the Double XP boosters we've bought in the store will stack with Double XP Weekend to create a "Quad-XP" event?
    Historically, I do not believe XP multipliers have ever stacked with double XP events. I would assume they would not unless the devs explicitly stated otherwise.
  16. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ulysses Dare View Post
    I don't care who you are, that there is funny.
    I thought so too, but this is a really tough room.
  17. I can't wait for Captain Mako to flip out, launch himself at the Atlas blimp, and then take on Giant Monster Lusca.
  18. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Neogumbercules View Post
    40% of the time, it works -every- time!

    I'm happy with the change. I'm glad I got to play around with it before the fix though.

    Anyone out there willing to do the math to determine how long a mob can stand in the patch before the law of averages makes it statistically impossible to avoid a tick.

    For example, there's a 60% chance the mob will dodge the first tick. 2 seconds later the power will roll the kd again. What are the chances the same mob will dodge the first tick AND the second tick?

    How many seconds would it take to make it all but certain that the mob will be be effected?
    36% chance to avoid two ticks in a row. 21.6% chance to avoid three. 13% chance to avoid four. 7.8% chance to avoid five. 4.7% chance to avoid six, which is now below the 5% minimum chance to avoid getting hit by powers that normally require a tohit roll (Bonfire is autohit).
  19. Quote:
    Originally Posted by StratoNexus View Post
    Indeed. That is what I mean when I said sometimes they use their judgement (I didn't mean to imply any negativity with the word arbitrary).

    But thinking about, wouldn't it be nice if blaster nukes did, say, about 22.5% more damage than a full end bar would allow? As a bonus for blasters? That seems like a good thought for the special case that nukes are. Then they could just set the recharge to whatever is appropriate for that scale.
    It would be nice if they had no target cap and I could fx-effect kill my client while cackling like a maniac (ah, demon room memories).

    Probably not likely to happen, though. The target cap, not the cackling; that's still going to happen for other reasons.
  20. Quote:
    Originally Posted by TClauss View Post
    So, your trying to call me a child? I still do not follow you.

    I'm sorry you guys yes I will point the finger now at the community. Whats the problem with it? Some would consider waving a carrot in front of a starving animal, animal cruelty. Well paragon I can be cruel too! There is still plenty of content to get people to spend their hard earned money (when they are earning it).

    I remember why I never started to publicly discuss on forums, and other media. So I am gone...not that any of you give a flying fkkkkk.

    That is all.
    Some people are not ready for the internet. Some people will never be ready for the internet. Some people don't want to sell anything, buy anything, or process anything; sell anything bought or processed, buy anything sold or processed, or process anything sold, bought, or processed, or repair anything sold, bought, or processed.

    You know, as a career.
  21. Quote:
    Originally Posted by StratoNexus View Post
    Hopefully Full Auto can get the 16 target cap, but since AR already has a great tier 9, it doesn't need a corresponding buff. Changing the "true" nukes is due to the fact that Full Auto and powers like it are already much better.
    In fact FA at its target cap will have roughly the same damage over time as I24 Nova at its target cap for reasonable levels of recharge.
  22. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Johnny_Butane View Post
    The Surfer has a wide and poorly defined suite of powers, but they extend beyond simple ranged and melee attacks.

    He's basically a Defender with whatever Buff/Debuff Primary he can think of, and an Energy Blast secondary.
  23. Quote:
    Originally Posted by StratoNexus View Post
    Indeed they do, 116.5* 1.25= 145.625.

    It is still arbitrary to decide to tack 25% onto the recharge, and I am not sure I agree that 4.96 at 145 second recharge is unpalatable, but I also do not find 4 at 145 seconds to be unreasonably low (although it is feels near the bottom of the range I do find reasonable).
    The current formula arbitrarily normalizes damage above scale 0.36 (incidentally, the formula predicts brawl should have zero recharge) and arbitrarily picks 6.25 as the damage to recharge ratio.

    It may be arbitrary, but it might not be arbitraily arbitrary. 25% (and its -20% inverse) come up a lot when it comes to special case alternatives. Its comparable to the accuracy penalty for AoE mezzes, the (original) arbitrary bonus given to Claws. Many such adjustment factors live between 20% and 50%, and cluster around 25% and 50%.

    There's also a curious coincidence to scale 4.0 damage that may be a coincidence, but it may also have some numerical hook to the devs thinking. Scale 4 is almost exactly what Nova should do *if* it expended all your endurance in one blast: its the *maximum* damage you should ever be able to do in effect. 100/5.2/4.75 = 4.05.

    In actual fact I24 Nova was shown to cost 27.72 end in the stream. Assuming that's unslotted and not discounted, another odd coincidence is that the current cost of Nova, 20.8, is what a scale 4.0 single target attack would cost. 27.72 is almost exactly 33% higher than what a scale 4.0 single target attack would cost.

    So one way to describe I24 Nova is that it does the maximum damage that endurance would allow, coincidentally also what Nova should do today if it was a single target attack obeying its non-crash endurance cost, but it now costs 33% more than what a single target attack would cost, and recharges 25% slower than a comparable AoE would cost.

    The numbers may seem arbitrary, but there does seem to be a train of thought to it. And there is an inverse relationship to 33% and 25% whether its strictly numerically appropriate in this case (1/1.33 = 0.75 = 1-0.25: 33% and 25% are dual inverses of each other).

    Four years ago I would have been sure this was a coincidence. Today I'm not so sure, particularly because feels like something Arbiter Hawk might have done if he was looking at it (Synapse is less chatty about how he thinks about numbers, although I know he thinks about them).
  24. Quote:
    Originally Posted by StratoNexus View Post
    I don't think it follows the formula. Scale 4 damage with an area mod of 4.75 seems to be a 116.5 second recharge, unless I am mistaken.

    When I plug 145 seconds and 4.75 into the damage formula I get:
    (0.2*((RECH*0.8)+1.8)) / AREAMOD
    (0.2*((145*0.8)+1.8)) / 4.75 = 4.96

    So 4 seems like an arbitrary number they picked, rather than obeying a formula. I am not saying 4 is a wrong number, just that at these large recharges and radii, they sometimes use their judgement rather than blindly using the formula.
    If I recall correctly Synapse stated in the stream that for ultrahigh damage powers like the nukes, they couldn't use the standard formula because it generates unpalatable results, but they didn't want to just arbitrarily remove crashes, so they made a new formula that in net terms roughly increases recharge by some percentage relative to what the standard formula would predict for nuke-like powers, which I think is about 25% (he might have said offhandedly 50%, but the numbers suggest 25%).
  25. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Cal_Naughton_Jr View Post
    Hey! That was my first thought too. I don't think you could beat this idea fun-wise. Sure it might be more efficient in Explosive Blast but yeah, a no KB Nova sounds super fun.
    It sounds efficient, but I don't think I have the heart to do that to my Nova. To me, its just not the same if wriggling feet aren't sticking out of walls in all directions.